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But it’s not the product of a power transition the Thucydidean cliché says it is. There’s indeed a deadly trap that could ensnare the United States and China. And it doesn’t explain why war is a very real possibility in U.S.-China relations today because it fundamentally misdiagnoses where China now finds itself on its arc of development-the point at which its relative power is peaking and will soon start to fade. It doesn’t capture the dynamics that have often driven revisionist powers-whether that is Germany in 1914 or Japan in 1941-to start some of history’s most devastating conflicts. The Thucydides Trap doesn’t really explain what caused the Peloponnesian War. The only problem with this familiar formula is that it’s wrong. As tensions between the United States and China escalate, the belief that the fundamental cause of friction is a looming “power transition”-the replacement of one hegemon by another-has become canonical. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping has endorsed the concept arguing Washington must make room for Beijing. The idea of a Thucydides Trap, popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, holds that the danger of war will skyrocket as a surging China overtakes a sagging America. “The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable,” the ancient historian Thucydides wrote-a truism now invoked, ad nauseum, in explaining the U.S.-China rivalry. The outcome is a spiral of fear and hostility leading, almost inevitably, to conflict. Tensions multiply tests of strength ensue. An ascendant power, which chafes at the rules of the existing order, gains ground on an established power-the country that made those rules. Why do great powers fight great wars? The conventional answer is a story of rising challengers and declining hegemons.

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